ARTICLE
The Democratic Party leadership has succeeded in compelling a reluctant President Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. The step represents the party’s desperate attempt to prevent the former president and the Republican Party nominee Donald Trump from regaining the presidency and firmly thrust his conservative, even retrogressive, agenda on crucial aspects of US national life. The Democratic Party leaders concluded after Biden’s disastrous performance in his debate with Trump on June 27 that he simply did not have the energy to defeat Trump in the election. The belief turned into conviction after the failed assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 — the Republican Party convention on July 15-18 further galvanised his supporters. Also, in the days following the debate, Biden’s frailty, due to age, became increasingly apparent. The Democratic Party is now in unchartered waters. Biden was the overwhelming choice of the party till the debate to take on Trump. He had secured the support of almost all the party delegates who would have formally endorsed his candidacy in the Democratic Party convention, scheduled to be held in Chicago on August 19-22. Biden has now endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic candidate. She has accepted Biden’s support and has declared that she intends to “earn and win this nomination”. With Biden’s endorsement of Harris, his campaign has effectively now become a Harris campaign. Under US law, Harris also gains the funds that the campaign has for electioneering. Biden’s endorsement has given Harris a definite advantage over any other Democratic leader who may wish to challenge her for the candidacy. However, the delegates who had pledged their support to Biden would now be free to shift to anyone they believe is capable of taking on Trump. The chances, however, are that no serious challenger will come out against Harris. There are just 15 weeks left till the election date—November 5—and it will have to be a very “courageous” Democrat to consider himself/herself capable of mounting a serious campaign against Trump from the ground up so late in the game. Hence, there is a very high chance that Harris will become the candidate. There are also reports that before the Chicago in-person convention, the Democratic Party may have a virtual “roll call” vote in early August to seal the nomination. If the Democrats wait till the Chicago Convention to select a candidate other than Harris, then the chosen person would not have enough time to sufficiently rally the party faithful and earn the support of the undecided. As it is, for Harris too, the campaign period is so limited and Trump has a huge head start. It is unlikely that Harris will be able to make any inroads among committed Republican voters. Her task is to ensure that the Democratic Party supporters and those leaning towards Biden do not turn towards Trump. This is especially so in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Together they account for the 93 electoral votes in an electoral college of 538 votes. As of now, Trump is doing relatively well in these states. While the contest is not lost for Harris, it will require a great effort to win these states. In her first statement, Harris said that Trump’s extreme agenda must be stopped. The fact is that US polity and society is polarised. Those who feel that they have been marginalised by the profound and comprehensive changes, including on account of technological developments, continue to respond to Trump’s agenda. This agenda is socially and politically the antithesis of the liberal values that were promoted domestically, in substantial measure, since the 1960s, and which, in theory, the US also pushed abroad. The assault on liberalism in the US was, perhaps, most seriously demonstrated by the Supreme Court’s reversal of abortion rights. In addition, Trump’s approaches on immigration, which form a larger part of his appeal, are an attempt to turn the clock back on the evolution, over the past six decades, of the US as a more multi-ethnic and just society of which Harris is a representative. Trump and his cohorts also deny the validity of science if its straightforward predictions are contrary to their economic vision. Their views on climate change are illustrative of this unscientific approach. Harris, if she becomes the Democratic Party candidate, will have to carry forward the torch of US liberal values and demonstrate meaningful leadership on climate change. In the arena of foreign policy, Trump has pointed to Biden’s failures beginning from the US’s chaotic retreat from Afghanistan, to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the quagmire in Gaza. He has projected that if he was the president, US strength would have been respected and that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine nor would Hamas have had the courage to attack Israel on October 7, 2023. He has warned Hamas to return all US hostages or face his wrath. Harris would have to expose Trump’s bluster and also convince the US people that she has what it takes to contain China and force it to a more responsible path. Any Democratic candidate, especially Harris, will have to show that they are not under Biden’s shadow. In Harris’s case, the choice of a running mate will have to make the ticket more ethnically and gender balanced and acceptable. In any event, Harris or any other Democratic candidate will face an uphill but not impossible task. The world’s eyes will be greatly focused on the US till November 5 because of these unprecedented political developments. The writer is a former diplomat None
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